Our Approach

We use an ensemble modelling approach to combine the results from multiple ecosystem models, all forced by standardized inputs and scenarios. We use combinations of Earth System Models (ESMs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to provide model inputs, along with simplified fishing scenarios. Our marine ecosystem models are both at global and regional scales, and vary widely in terms of how they represent food-web or ecosystem components and the links between them. Ecosystem components can be represented by size classes, functional groups, trophic levels, species groups, and life-history stages, whereas links can be represented by who-eats-whom networks, diet composition or energy transfer.

Image credit: Boyce, D. G., Schleit, K. & Fuller, S. Incorporating climate change into fisheries management in Atlantic Canada and the Eastern Arctic. Oceans North Report. (2021).

Ongoing studies

We are currently (a) using simulation experiments to examine and separate the relative influence of temperature and net primary productivity on future projections, and (b) beginning simulations for the ISIMIP 3a/b simulation round, using CMIP6 forcing data. FishMIP model outputs from simulation round 2(a) are publicly available and can be found here. You are welcome to use these data in your projects, but we encourage you to contact the FishMIP modellers and coordinators whose work you have been using, and to reference the publications which provide further details.